WarRoom With Peter Navarro - Richard Baris - Director - Big Data Poll

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To indicate which person is speaking they are identified each with an initial.

n. = Peter Navarro   b. = Richard Baris

Trump Endorsement More Helpful in Arizona

n. Do you see any type of Georgia fiasco in Arizona or was that misread? Kari Lake is doing something that David Perdue and Jodi Heiss could never do, which is to dominate.

b. We are talking about two entirely different electorates. One is heavily Hispanic. President Trump is very popular in Arizona and therefore an endorsement carries a lot of weight. It carries more weight than in the south with uppity, old school and RINOs, etc. Kari Lake has a big lead here at 43-29. Robeson is at 29?

n. Is this a closed primary with republicans only? Can the democrats come in and cause a little bit of mischief?

b. It's possible but is not significant. What is significant is the number of voters who call themselves independent and intend to vote Republican rather than Democrat. When independents were asked, 63% said they were voting republican.

n. What percentage of the voters know that Lake has the Trump endorsement and that is helping to influence their decision?

b. Good question because 60% of voters in Georgia told us they couldn't say who the president endorsed. Here it is totally different with only about 25% not knowing about the endorsement. Arizona illustrates how important this state is for the fight for the party. The people who like "America first" are the ones leading the way. They don't like old Republican establishment candidates.

n. And this includes Hispanics?

b. Kari Lake is thrashing Robeson with Hispanics. Working people, family people, and others like Hispanics are going to play a huge role going forward. This is why Arizona will not be like Georgia where there are about 30% African Americans along with "Yuppie" whites.

n. Apparently, the trip that Trump was due to take and was canceled due to the death of his former wife didn't seem to make a difference here.

b. Kari Lakes race is a lot less crowded and there is a lot less undecided. Governor races seem to tighten up much faster than some hyped Senate contests. We did ask people if they had already voted, do they intend to vote, will they vote on election day,  how will they vote, and so on. With those that have already voted Robeson leads by a paltry one percent. With all others that will vote later, it is a bloodbath with Lake trouncing the race. Arizona is heavily mail-in so it is very key to the candidates that they are winning that set that intends to cast a ballot prior to election day. I just don't know where Robeson is going to find the votes needed. n. How do you describe the beginning dead heat between Robeson and Lake?

b. You said before that they have a good ground game and they know how to use it. Tweets and messages from the president help to get the early ballots in. Those who vote in person on election day tend to be more skeptical of their decision. We did hear of problems where people did not want to receive a mail ballot yet still did. If you have that happen then take the mail-in ballot with you when you vote in person. Don't fill it out, just bring it along.

n. Did you ask about Katie Hobbs the democrat, the disastrous secretary of state who basically stole the election from Trump? Did you do a matchup between Lake vs Robeson?

b. We did and it's not out yet but Lake is ahead of Hobbs. Masters is not that far behind Kelly and it is very doable.

Is Arizona Red or Purple?

n. Are you telling me that Arizona is now a purple state? If you're telling me that both the governor and senate races are effectively dead heat races, then that doesn't sound like a red state to me. How do you explain this?

b. I think over time you will see it swing back. It is not what I would call a red state. Over time we may see it swing back to red. I wouldn't call it a red state like Florida. In Florida, Democrats can just hang it up. Fundraising against Ron DeSantos should be considered a fraud. You're just taking people's money.

n. Tell me about the Mark Finch secretary of state race. He has talked a lot about the election integrity issue and is more on our side. b. We didn't poll the secretary of state on the democratic side. We did do the democratic primary with Hobbs which was interesting. Very weak. The first Jewish contender for governor of Arizona. He withdrew but his name is still on the ballot and he takes a chunk from Hobbs and then there's Marco who takes about 15%. There is a huge number of undecided on the democratic side that is unhappy with their choices. They like Kelly better but they don't like the statewide candidates who are running. This shows that Hobbs is highly overrated.

n. Is that a winner takes all or will there be a runoff in the primaries?

b. There is a huge number of undecided.

n. Over 50% undecided probably means that 50% don't know who is running and 50% probably won't vote. I don't know what the dropoff is from governor to senator but I suspect there are a lot of people who don't vote for secretary of state.

b. A little bit of an undervote coming here, folks. It could be huge if a rally does come because you are going to have dueling rallies with Mike Pence who is going to go out there and make trouble. If the president does get out there and does his shout-outs. then those high turnout people are going to hear that. I honestly don't why the former vice president stepped up to embarrass himself here.

n. I'm telling you this is Georgia. This is what I was worried about. It's the Georgia formula. Please take your best shots here with what is the latest breaking news. Possibly comment on the soap opera on capital hill and whether that is eroding Trump. The president is winning voters that the Republicans didn't even have on their radar. He is changing the equation. We forget the incredible feats he has performed. Wining Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa.

n. Part of what you are saying is that Republicans generally lose the national vote but end up winning with the Electoral College. But what you are saying here is that Trump is winning the national vote also.

b. Yes. He would carry the national vote at this time. If you asked me this two years ago I would have said "no way".

n. Let me put you on the spot here. How many seats are the republicans going to win in November? If they win any, In the house. He asks with some numbers and examples of why for each.

b. Traditionally the republicans have capped out at 247. With redistricting, maybe 250. You would have to be running a good race. The problem is that every time they look like they are going to bust that cap they do something like sneak in amnesty, they do something dumb. These are incredibly dumb people. At this point, I'm not bearish. I think the republicans are going to take the house. All of the historical indicators show a rout. Right now if the former president announces that he is going to run again, he should wait until after the midterms. They are going to blame him if they turn in mediocre numbers and he will become a scapegoat.

n. Genius. That is about the smartest thing I've heard in months. For more info from Richard Baris check out the cross tabs at cbm.press or follow on social @peoplespundit and peoplespundit.locals.com.
 

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